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Photo courtesy of Yonhap News |
[Alpha Biz= Paul Lee] Hana Securities has assessed that the U.S. airstrike in Venezuela and the reported capture of President Nicolás Maduro will create short-term shocks in global financial markets, but the overall impact is likely to be limited.
In a report dated January 4, analyst Lee Jae-man noted, “Shocking geopolitical events typically trigger a ‘risk-off’ response, driving investors from risk assets into safe havens, which is causing temporary turbulence in global markets. However, given that Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of global oil production and oversupply concerns persist, the shock is likely to be short-lived.”
The report highlighted historical precedents, stating, “Following past geopolitical shocks, the S&P 500 index has risen by an average of 9.5% within a year. Excessive panic selling should be avoided. Key market-moving factors will be how the regime transition unfolds and the stability of the aftermath.”
Regarding oil, Lee said, “Geopolitical risks immediately trigger a risk premium. Based on historical examples, crude prices may face upward pressure of 5–10%. However, medium-term stability is expected within $55–65 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ supply management and slowing global demand.”
Safe-haven demand for gold is also expected to rise. The analyst commented, “Gold prices could jump 1–2% immediately following the event, with short-term possibilities of breaking $4,500 per ounce. Similar spikes of 10–20% were seen during the 9/11 attacks and the Iraq War. We expect elevated safe-haven demand to continue supporting upward pressure on gold prices.”
The U.S. dollar may experience short-term strength but increased medium-term volatility. Lee explained, “The dollar index is rising temporarily as uncertainty boosts demand for safe-haven currencies. However, medium-term risks—such as fiscal burdens from military action and potential diplomatic tensions with Latin America, China, and Russia—could weigh on the dollar. The dollar index (DXY) fell 9% in 2025, and expectations for further Fed rate cuts could accelerate this trend.”
Earlier, on January 3 (U.S. time), former President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that a major U.S. military operation in Venezuela had succeeded, resulting in the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro.
알파경제 Paul Lee 특파원(hoondork1977@alphabiz.co.kr)
