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(Photo= Yonhap news) |
[Alpha Biz= Reporter Kim Sangjin] According to Bloomberg on the 15th, UBS economists, including Wang Tao, have forecasted that if former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the White House and imposes high tariffs on all Chinese imports as promised earlier this year, China's economic growth rate could suffer significantly. They anticipate a potential reduction of 2.5 percentage points in China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth the following year. China's GDP growth rate was 5.2% last year, with a target of 5% for this year.
UBS's estimate assumes that after the U.S. imposes tariffs, China might export some products through third countries to bypass tariffs and refrain from retaliatory tariffs. It also assumes that third countries do not join the U.S. in imposing high tariffs.
UBS researchers attribute the potential decline in growth to reduced exports and impacts on consumption and investment.
알파경제 Kim SangJin (letyou@alphabiz.co.kr)
