[Alpha Biz= Paul Lee] Seoul, October 2 – KB Securities has revised its target price for POSCO Holdings down from KRW 390,000 to KRW 350,000, citing weaker-than-expected earnings forecasts and uncertainties surrounding the company’s potential acquisition of HMM Co.



Q3 Earnings Forecast Below Consensus

KB Securities projects that POSCO Holdings will post consolidated operating profit of KRW 563.2 billion in Q3 2025, down 24.2% year-on-year and 19% below market consensus.



Infrastructure (POSCO E&C): Operating loss is expected, reflecting a three-week suspension of construction activities during the quarter. Since profit is recognized by progress rate, the halted projects weighed heavily on earnings.



Steel: Operating profit is projected at KRW 588.0 billion, down 4% quarter-on-quarter. While parent company steel sales rose by 80,000 tons and spreads improved by KRW 8,000 per ton, overseas operations were hit by the disposal of the Zhangjiagang plant in China, continuing to impact profitability.



Q4 Outlook: Continued Pressure

For Q4, KB Securities expects operating profit of KRW 521.0 billion, down 81.8% year-on-year, reflecting potential additional cost recognition at POSCO E&C.

Steel: Anti-dumping duties imposed on hot-rolled products in mid-September may drive price increases and contribute to spread improvement.

Energy (POSCO International): Earnings are likely to improve as Australian gas subsidiary Senex begins reflecting higher production volumes.

Battery Materials: Operating losses are expected to widen further due to slower demand following the expiration of the EV Credit subsidy program.



Analyst View

KB Securities concluded that despite some positive drivers in energy and steel, the combination of infrastructure headwinds, battery-material weakness, and strategic uncertainty related to HMM limits near-term earnings visibility and justifies the lowered target price.

 

 

 

 

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